Don’t Be Fooled By The Great Odds of Baccarat!

When I first studied to become a Ph.D. mathematician in Toronto, I wasn’t particularly into game theory. It was later in life, as I matured, that I realized the significance of game theory, and how it much it may affect our lives. The hidden traps of baccarat is the perfect analogy for the hidden traps of life that each and everyone of us unknowingly walk into. Then I stumbled upon the perfect practical application: the trick of baccarat.

You see, whenever you play baccarat you may think it all comes down to blind luck. And although you may gain a statistical edge by counting cards at baccarat (one of about 0,000001%, so good luck with that …), that is the case indeed.

Counting cards aside, there are three options and three options only available at any round of baccarat. You may bet the player or banker to win. Or you may bet on a tie. Betting on the player generates a simple 1:1 return on your bet. You bet C$50 and you win C$50 (and get your bet back, naturally). A tie pays 8:1. And whenever you bet on the banker and win, a 5% commission is taken from your baccarat payout. Why is then that? Well, because the banker wins well over 50% of the time. If they were not to take a cut, such bet would end up being a losing proposition. Despite this 5% cut, the banker bet is still the number one baccarat option.

Now, unless you get divine intervention, betting on a tie is a fool’s bet. It generously fills the pocket of the online casino with a miserly 14 percent baccarat house edge! (In such case, you might as well leave your money by the casino counter and go home and take a bath.)

With its 98,64 RTP, the player bet is still a good one, but the banker bet still prevails. In the very, very long run, it will lose your money roughly 1/7 slower, thus meaning your dedicated baccarat bankroll may last eight years instead of seven.

So why then would anyone bet on anything but banker? Good question! 

Well, the online casinos are not stupid. They know that their players are aware of the strong banker move at baccarat. That players will generally choose it over the other (two!) options. For this reason they have decided to be cheeky. To use this knowledge against any unknowing players. What they have done is to enforce a minimum commission. Not only is it set at 5%, but there is also a minimum amount to be paid.

Normally, such online casino minimum commission is C$1 in Canada. This means that if you were to bet C$1 on the banker and win, then all of your profits will be paid in commissions. Not too enticing, is it?

If you bet C$10 and win, you still pay a C$1 fee, which in that case would amount to 10%. Now, that’s a 10% edge instead of the promised 98,83 RTP. Does that still sound like a good game of baccarat to you? It sure doesn’t to me.

The only way to clear yourself out of this hidden – and often massive – fee is to always set your minimum banker bet at 20x of the minimum commission. If the minimum banker commission at your online baccarat game is C$1 then C$20 should be your minimum bet. Only then can you overcome this fool’s fee and enjoy those ideal baccarat odds that are on offer.

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